The Best Monopoly Properties
Exploring the probabilities in Monopoly
Antony Brown, co-founder of Dice Maestro, is a games analyst and inventor who writes regularly on board games. This article explains how computer technology revealed the mysteries of the Monopoly board and shows which properties are most likely to be landed on.
When you play Monopoly do you get the feeling that your properties are visited less frequently than those of your opponents? Well, you may well be correct. According to a new research by game expert Antony Brown, not all Monopoly properties have the same chance of being landed on.
“As monopoly is essentially a game of chance it is easily simulated by computer,” explains Antony Brown, director at Dice Maestro, the games company behind the research. “This allows the computer to play millions of Monopoly games in the time it would take for someone to throw the dice and move the metal hat a few spaces. This lets us look at how the real game behaves – and is how we develop and test our own games.”
The results were a little surprising. The researchers found that two factors largely determine the long-run probability of landing on any property in the best-selling game – the effect of going to Jail and the effect Chance and Community Chest cards. The Jail corner (including Just Visiting) is the single-most visited square in the entire game – and by some margin. This is because there is a Go To Jail square, there are two cards directing a hapless player to go immediately to Jail and you can even find yourself doing some time if you throw three doubles.
Antony continues: “Going to Jail disrupts the regular pattern of play and when a player has done his time his playing piece is quite likely to land on the Orange or Red groups in his next turns. The other important factor is directing cards such as ‘Go Back To Old Kent Road’ or ‘Go To Trafalgar Square’ – over the long run they the increase the probability of landing on these particular properties”.
Excluding the four stations, which are shown in light grey in our bar chart, the top three most visited property groups are the orange, red, and yellow. For serious Monopoly fans we are even suggesting a simple rule variation could be adopted to even out some of the bias towards orange: after a stretch in jail a player throws a single die to determine where they are “rehabilitated” into the game. The ‘Jail Bird’ rule changes the hottest properties list, making the chances of landing on the property groups more even. As the rule is not official, players would have to agree to implement it before a game.
The findings and rule variation were announced when Antony Brown was interviewed on the board gaming podcast The Little Metal Dog Show. “Using Dice Maestro's computer modelling on one of the most iconic games out there has seen a brilliant new rule for a game that's now celebrating its 75th anniversary!” comments Michael Fox, host of the Little Metal Dog Show, which coincidently takes its name from the famous trinket of the traditional Monopoly set. “It was great having Antony announce the new rule - and the reasons behind it - on the show.”
The research is believed to be the most comprehensive of its kind on the UK version of the game. The traditional UK and US versions of Monopoly differ in composition of the cards and consequently the hottest properties are different. For a comparative list see the the Appendix below.
Appendix: Monopoly Property Probabilities
The following table cannot be published in any form without prior permission from Dice Maestro.
Using Dice Maestro's sophisticated computer analysis techniques, Antony Brown examined the probabilities of landing on all Monopoly squares for The Little Metal Dog Show. The computer simulated playing millions of Monopoly games in the time it would take for someone to throw the dice and move the metal hat a few spaces. From this extensive play testing, we can reveal the Hottest Monopoly properties are:
The table clearly shows that adopting the ‘Jailbird’ rule breaks-up the dominance of the Orange and Red groups, which have five out of the top six hottest properties in the traditional game. This allows properties from the Brown, Dark Blue, Light Blue and Green groups to enter the list.
The probabilities for the UK and US editions differ because their decks of Chance and Community Chest are not the same. For example, in the US edition these include “Go To The Nearest Railroad” and “Go To The Nearest Utility”, which are not in the UK edition. The “Jailbird” rule works in the US edition too, breaking-up the dominance of the Oranges. A “rehabilitation throw” of 1 would see the playing piece move to the Community Chest square next to Mediterranean Avenue and so on.
Finally, it should be stressed that differences in probabilities between different properties are only significant taken over the long run. They are no guide to what may happen in any individual game. That’s the difference between luck and probability!
This article, the bar chart and the ‘Jail Bird’ rule are copyright Dice Maestro Limited. The Monopoly trademark and its logo, the distinctive design of the game board, each distinctive element of the board including the four corner squares, and the playing pieces are trademarks of Hasbro, Inc.